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International Financial Management 11th Edition

by Jeff Madura

4 Exchange Rate Determination

 Explain how exchange rate movements are measured.

 Explain how the equilibrium exchange rate is determined.

 Examine factors that determine the equilibrium exchange rate.

 Explain the movement in cross exchange rates.

 Explain how financial institutions attempt to capitalize on anticipated exchange rate movements.

Chapter Objectives

Measuring Exchange Rate Movements

 Depreciation: decline in a currency’s value

 Appreciation: increase in a currency’s value

 Comparing foreign currency spot rates over two points in time, S and St-1

 A positive percent change indicates that the currency has appreciated. A negative percent change indicates that it has depreciated.

1 aluecurrency vforeign in Percent 

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Exhibit 4.1 How Exchange Rate Movements and Volatility Are Measured

Exchange Rate Equilibrium

 The exchange rate represents the price of a currency, or the rate at which one currency can be exchanged for another.

 Demand for a currency increases when the value of the currency decreases, leading to a downward sloping demand schedule. (See Exhibit 4.2)

 Supply of a currency increases when the value of the currency increases, leading to an upward sloping supply schedule. (See Exhibit 4.3)

 Equilibrium equates the quantity of pounds demanded with the supply of pounds for sale. (See Exhibit 4.4)

 In liquid spot markets, exchange rates are not highly sensitive to large currency transactions.

Exhibit 4.2 Demand Schedule for British Pounds

Exhibit 4.3 Supply Schedule of British Pounds for Sale

Exhibit 4.4 Equilibrium Exchange Rate Determination

Factors That Influence Exchange Rates

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controls governmentin change

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level income U.S.ebetween th aldifferenti in the change

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rateinterest U.S.ebetween th aldifferenti in the change

inflation scountry'foreign theand

inflation S.between U. aldifferenti in the change

ratespot in the change percentage

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The equilibrium exchange rate will change over time as supply and demand schedules change.

Factors That Influence Exchange Rates

 Relative Inflation: Increase in U.S. inflation leads to increase in U.S. demand for foreign goods, an increase in U.S. demand for foreign currency, and an increase in the exchange rate for the foreign currency. (See Exhibit 4.5)

 Relative Interest Rates: Increase in U.S. rates leads to increase in demand for U.S. deposits and a decrease in demand for foreign deposits, leading to a increase in demand for dollars and an increased exchange rate for the dollar. (See Exhibit 4.6)

Fisher Effect:

rateInflation rateinterest Nominal rateinterest Real 

Factors That Influence Exchange Rates

 Relative Income Levels: Increase in U.S. income leads to increased in U.S. demand for foreign goods and increased demand for foreign currency relative to the dollar and an increase in the exchange rate for the foreign currency. (See Exhibit 4.7)

 Government Controls via: Imposing foreign exchange barriers Imposing foreign trade barriers Intervening in foreign exchange marketsAffecting macro variables such as inflation, interest

rates, and income levels.

Factors That Influence Exchange Rates

 Expectations: If investors expect interest rates in one country to rise, they may invest in that country leading to a rise in the demand for foreign currency and an increase in the exchange rate for foreign currency. Impact of signals on currency speculation.

Speculators may overreact to signals causing currency to be temporarily overvalued or undervalued.

Factors that Influence Exchange Rates

 Interaction of Factors: some factors place upward pressure while other factors place downward pressure. (See Exhibit 4.8)

 Influence of Factors across Multiple CurrencyMarkets: common for European currencies to move in the same direction against the dollar.

Exhibit 4.8 Summary of How Factors Can Affect Exchange Rates

Anticipation of Exchange Rate Movements

 Institutional speculation based on expected appreciation – When financial institutions believe that a currency is valued lower than it should be in the foreign exchange market, they may invest in that currency before it appreciates.

 Institutional speculation based on expected depreciation – If financial institutions believe that a currency is valued higher than it should be in the foreign exchange market, they may borrow funds in that currency and convert it to their local currency now before the currency’s value declines to its proper level.

 Speculation by individuals – Individuals can speculate in foreign currencies.

SUMMARY

 Exchange rate movements are commonly measured by the percentage change in their values over a specified period, such as a month or a year. MNCs closely monitor exchange rate movements over the period in which they have cash flows denominated in the foreign currencies of concern.

 The equilibrium exchange rate between two currencies at any point in time is based on the demand and supply conditions. Changes in the demand for a currency or the supply of a currency for sale will affect the equilibrium exchange rate.

SUMMARY (Cont.)

 The key economic factors that can influence exchange rate movements through their effects on demand and supply conditions are relative inflation rates, interest rates, and income levels, as well as government controls. As these factors cause a change in international trade or financial flows, they affect the demand for a currency or the supply of currency for sale and therefore affect the equilibrium exchange rate.

 Unique international trade and financial flows between every pair of countries dictate the unique supply and demand conditions for the currencies of the two countries, which affect the equilibrium cross exchange rate. The movement in the exchange rate between two non-dollar currencies can be determined by considering the movement in each currency against the dollar and applying intuition.

SUMMARY (Cont.)

 Financial institutions can attempt to benefit from expected appreciation of a currency by purchasing that currency. Conversely, they can attempt to benefit from expected depreciation of a currency by borrowing that currency, exchanging it for their home currency, and then buying that currency back just before they repay the loan.

5 Currency Derivatives

 Explain how forward contracts are used to hedge based on anticipated exchange rate movements

 Describe how currency futures contracts are used to speculate or hedge based on anticipated exchange rate movements

 Explain how currency option contracts are used to speculate or hedge based on anticipated exchange rate movements

Chapter Objectives

What is a Currency Derivative?

1. A currency derivative is a contract whose price is derived from the value of an underlying currency.

2. Examples include forwards/futures contracts and options contracts.

3. Derivatives are used by MNCs to:a. Speculate on future exchange rate movements

b. Hedge exposure to exchange rate risk

Forward Market

 A forward contract is an agreement between a corporation and a financial institution: To exchange a specified amount of currency

 At a specified exchange rate called the forward rate

 On a specified date in the future

How MNCs Use Forward Contracts

 Hedge their imports by locking in the rate at which they can obtain the currency

 Bid/Ask Spread is wider for less liquid currencies. May negotiate an offsetting trade if an MNC enters

into a forward sale and a forward purchase with the same bank.

 Non-deliverable forward contracts (NDF) can be used for emerging market currencies where no currency delivery takes place at settlement, instead one party makes a payment to the other party.

Premium or Discount on the Forward Rate

F = S(1 + p)

where:F is the forward rate

S is the spot rate

p is the forward premium, or the percentage by which the forward rate exceeds the spot rate.

Exhibit 5.1 Computation of Forward Rate Premiums or Discounts

Premium or Discount on the Forward Rate

Arbitrage – If the forward rate was the same as the spot rate, arbitrage would be possible.

Movements in the Forward Rate over Time – The forward premium is influenced by the interest rate differential between the two countries and can change over time.

Offsetting a Forward Contract – An MNC can offset a forward contract by negotiating with the original counterparty bank.

Currency Futures Market

 Similar to forward contracts in terms of obligation to purchase or sell currency on a specific settlement date in the future.

 Differ from forward contracts because futures have standard contract specifications:a. Standardized number of units per contract (See Exhibit 5.2)b. Offer greater liquidity than forward contractsc. Typically based on U.S. dollar, but may be offered on cross-

rates.d. Commonly traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

(CME).

Exhibit 5.2 Currency Futures Contracts Traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Trading Currency Futures

 Firms or individuals can execute orders for currency futures contracts by calling brokerage firms.

 Electronic trading platforms facilitate the trading of currency futures. These platforms serve as a broker, as they execute the trades desired.

 Currency futures contracts are similar to forward contracts in that they allow a customer to lock in the exchange rate at which a specific currency is purchased or sold for a specific date in the future.

Exhibit 5.3 Comparison of the Forward and Futures Market

Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange

Trading Currency Futures (cont.)

 Pricing Currency Futures – The price of currency futures will be similar to the forward rate

 Credit Risk of Currency Futures Contracts -To minimize its risk, the CME imposes margin requirements to cover fluctuations in the value of a contract, meaning that the participants must make a deposit with their respective brokerage firms when they take a position.

 https://www.cmegroup.com/

How Firms Use Currency Futures

 Purchasing Futures to Hedge Payables – The purchase of futures contracts locks in the price at which a firm can purchase a currency.

 Selling Futures to Hedge Receivables – The sale of futures contracts locks in the price at which a firm can sell a currency.

Closing Out a Futures Position

 Sellers (buyers) of currency futures can close out their positions by buying (selling) identical futures contracts prior to settlement.

 Most currency futures contracts are closed out before the settlement date.

Exhibit 5.4 Closing Out a Futures Contract

Speculation with Currency Futures

1. Currency futures contracts are sometimes purchased by speculators attempting to capitalize on their expectation of a currency’s future movement.

2. Currency futures are often sold by speculators who expect that the spot rate of a currency will be less than the rate at which they would be obligated to sell it.

Exhibit 5.5 Source of Gains from Buying Currency Futures

Currency Futures Market Efficiency

1. If the currency futures market is efficient, the futures price should reflect all available information.

2. Thus, the continual use of a particular strategy to take positions in currency futures contracts should not lead to abnormal profits.

3. Research has found that the currency futures market may be inefficient. However, the patterns are not necessarily observable until after they occur, which means that it may be difficult to consistently generate abnormal profits from speculating in currency futures.

Currency Options Markets

 Currency options provide the right to purchase or sell currencies at specified prices.

 Options Exchanges  1982 – exchanges in Amsterdam, Montreal, and Philadelphia first

allowed trading in standardized foreign currency options.

 2007 – CME and CBOT merged to form CME group

 Exchanges are regulated by the SEC in the U.S. https://www.sec.gov/

 Over-the-counter market – Where currency options are offered by commercial banks and brokerage firms. Unlike the currency options traded on an exchange, the over-the-counter market offers currency options that are tailored to the specific needs of the firm.

Currency Call Options

 Grants the right to buy a specific currency at a designated strike price or exercise price within a specific period of time.

 If the spot rate rises above the strike price, the owner of a call can exercise the right to buy currency at the strike price.

 The buyer of the option pays a premium. If the spot exchange rate is greater than the strike price,

the option is in the money. If the spot rate is equal to the strike price, the option is at the money. If the spot rate is lower than the strike price, the option is out of the money.

Factors Affecting Currency Call Option Premiums

The premium on a call option (C) is affected by three factors: Spot price relative to the strike price (S – X): The higher

the spot rate relative to the strike price, the higher the option price will be.

 Strike Price – price at which a put or call option can be exercised.

 Length of time before expiration (T): The longer the time to expiration, the higher the option price will be.

 Potential variability of currency (σ): The greater the variability of the currency, the higher the probability that the spot rate can rise above the strike price.

How Firms Use Currency Call Options

Firms can use call options to: hedge payables

 hedge project bidding to lock in the dollar cost of potential expenses.

 hedge target bidding of a possible acquisition.

 Speculate on expectations of future movements in a currency.

Currency Put Options

1. Grants the right to sell a currency at a specified strike price or exercise price within a specified period of time.

2. If the spot rate falls below the strike price, the owner of a put can exercise the right to sell currency at the strike price.

3. The buyer of the options pays a premium.

4. If the spot exchange rate is lower than the strike price, the option is in the money. If the spot rate is equal to the strike price, the option is at the money. If the spot rate is greater than the strike price, the option is out of the money.

Factors Affecting Put Option Premiums

Put option premiums are affected by three factors: Spot rate relative to the strike price (S–X): The lower

the spot rate relative to the strike price, the higher the probability that the option will be exercised.

 Length of time until expiration (T): The longer the time to expiration, the greater the put option premium

 Variability of the currency (σ): The greater the variability, the greater the probability that the option may be exercised.

Hedging with Currency Put Options

1. Corporations with open positions in foreign currencies can use currency put options in some cases to cover these positions.

2. Some put options are deep out of the money, meaning that the prevailing exchange rate is high above the exercise price. These options are cheaper (have a lower premium), as they are unlikely to be exercised because their exercise price is too low.

3. Other put options have an exercise price that is currently above the prevailing exchange rate and are therefore more likely to be exercised. Consequently, these options are more expensive.

Speculating with Currency Put Options

1. Individuals may speculate with currency put options based on their expectations of the future movements in a particular currency.

2. Speculators can attempt to profit from selling currency put options. The seller of such options is obligated to purchase the specified currency at the strike price from the owner who exercises the put option.

3. The net profit to a speculator is based on the exercise price at which the currency can be sold versus the purchase price of the currency and the premium paid for the put option..

Conditional Currency Options

1. A currency option can be structured with a conditional premium, meaning that the premium paid for the option is conditioned on the actual movement in the currency’s value over the period of concern.

2. Firms also use various combinations of currency options.

SUMMARY

 A forward contract specifies a standard volume of a particular currency to be exchanged on a particular date. Such a contract can be purchased by a firm to hedge payables or sold by a firm to hedge receivables.

 Futures contracts on a particular currency can be purchased by corporations that have payables in that currency and wish to hedge against the possible appreciation of that currency. Conversely, these contracts can be sold by corporations that have receivables in that currency and wish to hedge against the possible depreciation of that currency.

SUMMARY (Cont.)

 Currency options are classified as call options or put options. Call options allow the right to purchase a specified currency at a specified exchange rate by a specified expiration date. Put options allow the right to sell a specified currency at a specified exchange rate by a specified expiration date. Currency call options are commonly purchased by corporations that have payables in a currency that is expected to appreciate. Currency put options are commonly purchased by corporations that have receivables in a currency that is expected to depreciate.