Research has shown that terrorist pre-attack activity generates a relatively predictable pattern of activity and behavior that presents a potential for intelligence collection by various means. The use of a CBRN weapon/agent in a terrorist attack also requires unique activity and behavior that presents significant potential for intelligence indicators that can help intelligence analysts, law enforcement officials, and other officials create a collections plan to focus on these indicators. These collection indicators must present specific instances of events or “signatures” relevant to terrorist activity or CBRN uses far ahead enough to provide useful intelligence. “A Sarin attack occurs” is not an indicator, because it is the attack event itself that kills in seconds. A terrorist action that occurs weeks or months prior to the attack that is relevant to the target, method, travel, weapon, or other elements of the attack CAN be useful and can be acted upon. Indicators overall must be early, observable, diagnostic, and relevant. The attached document is a study on the use of indicators to signal terrorist attack pre-operational activity. It can serve to familiarize students with the use of indicators beyond the material already provided in weeks 4 and 5.
Exercise Purpose. Use the provided intelligence and background information relevant to the RAP to develop a list of six pre-operational intelligence collection indicators: two on expected terrorist group behavior (modus operandus), two on expected CW agent acquisition and dissemination, and two on specific terrorist group motivations/psychology. Provide sufficient detail on the indicator so as to facilitate notional intelligence collections and the rationale in a few sentences as to why this is a logical indicator of terrorist/CBRN activity. Provide cited references in Turabian format (endnotes/footnotes AND a bibliography) to course materials to back up your logic for every indicator. These indicators should represent a thoughtful assessment of the raw intelligence in the hypothetical scenario as it relates to important course themes on terrorist modus operandi, mindset and psychology, and the technical realities of acquiring and/or producing CBRN weapons/agents. These indicators would be used in the real world in plans by counterterrorism agencies to conduct all-source collection efforts in an attempt to prevent a forecasted attack, so they must be specific enough to act upon (hypothetically). Bad example: “pre-operational establishment of xxx.” Good example: “Establishment of xxx within xx miles of New York City, within xxx days of the expected attack date.”
Exercise learning objective. Recognize that analysis of terrorist-CBRNE precedent, strategy, and psychology supports terrorism forecasts upon which itinerant and guided intelligence, counterterrorism, antiterrorism, and preventive operations may be formulated and directed.
Format. This assignment must be crafted with the same format rules as applies to the RAP (APUS undergraduate essay standards), with the exception of no title page. This is a formal writing assignment as such. The less formal rules we use in the forum discussion are not appropriate for this exercise. Use full citations (footnotes/endnotes) for all information you find through research. Use Turabian style for notes and Bibliography.
Example format:
Introduction paragraph: describe the assignment context and purpose.
- Indicator: [example] actor x would accomplish y within a period of z prior to the attack (this is an example, your indicator might not have specific actors, time periods, or actions). Make your collection indicator specific enough to be workable for intelligence or law enforcement to use in practice–where, when, what, who. Put the “why” under “Reasoning” below.
a. Reasoning: [example] Paul Pillar discussed how terrorists typically do x because they need to have y with the goal of z.1
